What chance do South Africa have in the World Test Championship Final?

With their victory in the first Test against Pakistan, South Africa secured their place in the World Test Championship Final at Lord’s in June.

If you’d had your money on which side would qualify for the tournament first, South Africa would have given you long odds - particularly after the controversial decision to send a third string side to New Zealand this time last year where they were resoundingly beaten.

Results in their other games including a 1-1 draw at home to India have propelled South Africa to the top of the table. They will meet Australia this summer who have finished second after their win over India in the Sydney Test.

The Proteas will have their work cut out for them though to beat the defending champions.

So what chance do South Africa have in the face of Australia?

In short, a good chance…but it won’t be easy.

Newlands was the backdrop for South Africa to make it 2-0 in the series

Over the course of this WTC cycle, the side has become solidified and is looking the strongest it has in a while. Rather than multiple debuts during the cycle, more has been done to improve the players that they already had. Whilst they may not be considered world beaters in the format, the likes of Aiden Markram, Temba Bavuma, Kyle Verreynne and Ryan Rickleton have become more and more comfortable at the Test level. Seemingly, the players have repaid the faith shown to them in the consistency of selection.

Tristan Stubbs and David Bedingham have been added to the ranks in this time and have both shown glimpses of their abilities too. Stubbs broke into the side off the back of a huge amount of potential, meanwhere Bedingham earned his spot after years of toil in both England and South Africa’s domestic systems. Both have been welcome additions to the side.

During this cycle, Temba Bavuma has also taken over the captaincy from Dean Elgar too. The loss of Elgar, could have created a vacuum but not only has Bavuma stepped up to the role well, his batting has seemingly improved too with the challenge as an added bonus.

Whilst the batting line up has been worked on in one form or another, the pace bowling ranks have always been strong. Kagiso Rabada, Marco Jansen, Anrich Nortje, Lungi Ngidi and Wiaan Mulder had been South Africa’s main choices in the last WTC cycle but due to injury and unavailability a number of backups have been brought in since then, many of them pressing their case for first choice selection.

Gerald Coetzee, Nandre Burger, Duanne Olivier, Kwena Maphaka and Dane Paterson have all filled in over the last couple of years each making strong showings at times. The strength in depth has been a hugely impressive aspect of this Proteas side.

In many ways, the South Africa side looks remarkably different to the Australian one.

Much has been made of Australia’s aging line up. In the Sydney Test, there were no players wearing the Baggy Green in their 20s - Sam Konstas, 19, was the only man under 30. In the next 24 months, Australia can expect retirements across both their bowling and batting attacks. In short, they are undoubtedly on the brink of a major team overhaul but if the India series proved anything though, it’s that they still have fuel in the tank.

The one problem about having a side as success as the Australian side has been is moving them on. There are definitely players who are well beyond their peak at this stage, Steve Smith was on that list too before picking up another couple of Test tons to add to his collection but there are certainly question marks both in terms of form and fitness for the likes of Mitchell Marsh, Alex Carey, Usman Khawaja, Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Starc and Nathan Lyon. It would take a brave selector to push any one of them out the door.

There are also the intangible qualities that an Australia South Africa Test match brings. In the last 4 series, both sides have won 2 series - at least one of them away from home. They’re usually fiery encounters with plenty of pace from either side (lest we forget that sandpaper was in a series between these two).

Man for man, the Australia side is better but perhaps with a bit more youthful exuberance, the South African side could have a higher ceiling than it’s reached so far.